Top Picks to Win the 2021 Masters Tournament

AMEND’s data experts share their standout picks for the 2021 Master Tournament using the same model that hit 7 out of 10 Top-Ten finishers in the 2020 Masters Tournament

With only a mere five months between the ’20 and ’21 Masters Tournaments, it feels like just yesterday we were watching Tiger place the green jacket on DJ’s shoulders. Whether in November or April, the drive down Magnolia Lane elicits excitement regardless of the time of year. In 2021, there are players looking to make a comeback and others looking to make a name for themselves. The anticipation leading up to the first tee is palpable and we hope to provide some insight into your Masters viewing experience.

Analysis

Following our 2020 analysis, we gathered player-level PGA Tour data from the last ten years via pgatour.com, as well as Masters Tournament results from 2011 to 2020 via masters.com. This information was then added to our model which predicts the player with the highest likelihood of finishing at the top of the leaderboard.

Methodology

With this key information, we specify a model that predicts each player’s total score in the tournament using their prior-year PGA Tour averages in various statistical categories deemed to be relevant (definitions below). We then apply a lasso regression method to predict each player’s finishing position based on the important individual factors (Strokes gained putting, strokes gained tee to green, scoring average, and bounce back %). We hypothesize that, due to the inherent unpredictability of a golf tournament, the predictive power of any one specific statistical category should be limited. The lasso regression is our method of choice because it imposes constraints on both important and unimportant variables in the training set leading us to the most predictive variables highlighted below.

Strokes Gained Putting: Player performance putting. It compares how many putts a player took to the expected number of strokes to hole out based on the initial distance to the pin.

Strokes Gained tee to green: Number of strokes better or worse an individual player was than the field on average per round.

Scoring Average: Total stokes per player, per round, on average.

Bounce Back %: Player’s ability to follow a bad hole (over par) with a good hole (under par).

Using our model and the statistically relevant variables, we designed the ideal make-up of a Masters Tournament champion. Based on individual player performance leading to the Masters, we predict who will have the best chance to win. Our results for the 2021 Masters Tournament follow:

Top 10

We believe one of these golfers is going to win The Masters.

Projected Finish	Golfer	Odds
1	Patrick Cantlay	+2200
2	Dustin Johnson	+850
3	Justin Thomas	+1000
4	Matt Jones	+12000
5	Rory McIlroy	+1400
6	Xander Schauffele	+2000
7	Tony Finau	+2700
8	Jon Rahm	+1100
9	Bryson Dechambeau	+900
10	Joaquin Niemann	+4800

Sleepers

If you followed our sleeper recommendations from the 2020 Masters (Scottie Scheffler (+5000): T19, Sungjae Im (+5000): T2, Cameron Smith (+8000): T2), you could have impressed quite a few people. We hope to provide the same level of accuracy and value in this year’s picks just five months later:

Matt Jones (+12000): “Who the heck is Matt Jones?” He has two PGA tour wins in his 20-year career. He’s coming up on his second-ever appearance at the Masters and he is 40 years old. Matt’s ball-striking is superb, and he is on a hot streak after his second ever PGA Tour win at the Honda Classic earlier this year. Matt Jones could very well be the value play of the weekend.

Joaquin Niemann (+4800): Joaquin is rolling into Masters week sitting at 11 in FedEx Cup rankings. So far in 2021, he has had three top-10 finishes to accompany his one PGA Tour victory in his very young career. At 22 years old with a very solid resume, he is flying under the radar walking into Augusta. We expect this youngster to card some excellent scores going into the weekend.

Cameron Smith (+3700): Following an incredible showing at the 2020 Masters Tournament just five months ago, we had to pull him back up. Odds are much less favorable (with good reason), but his ability to navigate Augusta can’t be ignored. With only two wins on tour in his 8-year career, he is a bit of a stretch to repeat his performance, but we expect Cam to splash into the top-10 yet again.

Hot Takes

Steer clear of Morikawa: Collin certainly has a lot of hype around him going into Masters week. He is projected to be top-10 based on betting odds and is currently ranked 22 in FedEx Cup rankings. There is absolutely no doubt that he is an incredible golfer who will be competing for many more majors in the years to come but do not expect him to go home with the green jacket this week.

Spieth finishes outside the top 10: This is a bold one that has the potential to frustrate a lot of patrons. After accumulating five top-10 finishes so far in 2021, including a win just last week at the Valero Texas Open, many fans are calling for Jordan to have a much-needed comeback performance at Augusta. Going into the tournament he is currently 7^th in FedEx Cup rankings and 5^th in betting odds. Betting against a golfer on a hot streak is traditionally not a good idea, but due to Spieth’s volatile trend over the past couple of seasons as well as his recent performance at the Masters, we feel strongly about avoiding the Texan.

Conclusion

Whether you are riding with a sleeper or simply looking to enjoy some spring golf, there’s sure to be fireworks coming down the stretch at Augusta.

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Appendix

Full Model Results: (Note: Players without sufficient sample size of rounds played were excluded)

Authors